ONTARIO EVENTS:

APPEALS FROM OCAP: TWO UPCOMING DEMONSTRATIONS:

The Ontario Coalition Against Poverty (OCAP) has sent out calls for participation in two demonstrations in the next two days. The first is a demonstration tomorrow, Friday, January 25th at the Israeli Consulate at 180 Bloor St. West, Toronto. It is calling for the end of the present Israeli siege of the Gaza Strip. Time 5:00 pm. Sponsors are the Palestine House and the Jewish Women's Committee to End the Occupation.

The second demonstration is set for Saturday, January 26th at the Toronto Immigration Offices, at 9:30 am. You are asked to meet first at the OISE at 252 Bloor St. West where buses will be carrying people to the offices. This is part of the National days of Action to Support Laibar Singh. Mr. Singh is a paralyzed refugee whose deportation by Immigration Canada was halted by direct action in Vancouver (see previously here at Molly's Blog). He is presently in sanctuary at the Surrey Guru Nanak Gurudwara in Surrey BC.

STUDENT MOVEMENT

ISSUE NUMBER TWO OF THE SDS NEWS BULLETIN IS OUT NOW:

The reborn Students for a Democratic Society have brought out issue number 2 of their news bulletin. It is available in a pdf format for downloading, printing and local distribution at the website highlighted above. Their press release follows:

"SDS News Bulletin, Issue 2: The SDS News Bulletin working group is proud to bring you our second issue, much improved over the first in our humble opinion. We amped up the articles, poetry, art and layout from Issue 1, and you made it all possible by sending in your work, thoughts, ideas and love.

Issue #2 of the SDS News Bulletin is Here !!!

PRINT AND DISTRIBUTE TO YOUR CHAPTER, CAMPUS AND COMMUNITY:

LABOUR SOLIDARITY:

ANOTHER FARM WORKER DEATH; ANOTHER LAW NOT ENFORCED:

Last May the United Farm Workers sent out an appeal demanding an investigation into the death of Eladio Hernandez, a 52 year old farm worker who died of a heart attack while working in sweltering heat in a San Joaquin Valley orchard. This appeal was reproduced here at Molly's Blog. Thousands of people emailed the California OSHA demanding an investigation, and they did indeed do so. The report of the OSHA found that farm labour contractor YNT Harvesting was operating in serious violation of several health and safety standards. The company was fined about $26,000 for these violations.

The UFW has called on its supporters to email California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger telling him that farm workers need his help to enforce the laws that are on the books regarding labour conditions in the fields of his State. as they say, "the laws on the books are not the laws in the fields". To read more and join this campaign go to the link HERE.

AMATEUR ASTRONOMY:
THE MOONS OF 2008:
Welcome to the "Full Wolf Moon'. That's the name of tonight's full Moon. Well not exactly, because the exact time of this, the first full Moon of 2008, was at 7:35 am CST (8:35 am EST/1:35 pm UT)this morning. Still the Moon tonight is for all intents and purposes "full". Each of the full Moons of the year has traditional names. Most are from eastern Algonquin language group native tribes, but some are from the early European settlers. The following is a list of the Moons of 2008, arranged by date. Exact times are given in CST/EDT and UT in the first and last parts of the year and in CDT/EDT and UT when daylight savings time applies. To convert from these times to your own time zone see the Time and Date website. For an extensive guide to things lunar, including all the phases of the Moon, and prominent lunar features as well as an on-line lunar map see Space.Com's Moon Guide.
1)Jan 22 (7:35am CST/8:35am EST/1:35pm UT): The Full Wolf Moon was, of course, named for the hungry wolves that roamed outside of native villages in the depths of winter. Some tribes called this the 'Full Snow Moon', though most applied this name to the following full Moon. Europeans called this the 'Old Moon' or the 'Moon After Yule'.
2)Feb. 20(9:30pm CST/10:30pm EST/3:30am Feb 21 UT). Known as the 'Full Snow Moon, this was the ,month when snow was usually the heaviest in eastern North America. Because of the snow hunting becomes difficult, and some tribes referred to this full Moon as the 'Full Hunger Moon'. As Molly mentioned earlier on this blog this will be the night of a full lunar eclipse. Stay tuned for more details.
3)March 21 (1:40 pm CDT/2:40pm EDT/7:40pm UT). In the east of North America (though not here in Winnipeg) this is the month when the ground begins to thaw and the first earthworms appear. Hence the name the 'Full Worm Moon'. In the northern parts of the east the tribes knew this as the 'Full Crow Moon' when the crows begin to put up an increasing racket as spring approaches. It was also know as the 'Full Crust Moon' for the way that the freezing and thawing cycle gives a extra "crustiness" to the surface of the snow. Yet another name is the 'Full Sap Moon' when the temperatures and the freeze/thaw cycle makes it possible to begin tapping maple trees for sap.
Last year's first lunar eclipse happened on this Moon, on March 3rd. In Christian chronology this is also the Paschal Full Moon(the first full Moon of spring). Easter is dated as the first Sunday following the Paschal Moon, and this year this will fall on March 23rd. This will be the earliest Easter since 1913. Last year Easter was on April 8th.
4)April 20 (5:25am CDT/6:25am EDT/11:25 UT) This is known as the Full Pink Moon, from the colour of ground phlox, one of the earliest wildflowers in eastern North America. There are a number of other native names for this Moon, the 'Full Sprouting Grass Moon', the "Egg Moon" and, in coastal areas, the 'Full Fish Moon' when fish return to the rivers to spawn.
5)May 19 (8:11pm CDT/9:11pm EDT/2:11am May 20 UT) This is known as the 'Full Flower Moon' for obvious reasons. It was also called the 'Full Corn Planting Moon' and the 'Milk Moon'. The Moon will come to its apogee a mere 12 hours after the time of this full Moon, and thus this will seem to be the apparently smallest full Moon of the year (about 12.3% smaller than the largest, that of December 12).
6)June 18 (12:30pm CDT/1:30pm EDT/6:30pm UT). The 'Full Strawberry Moon'. Known to the Europeans as the 'Rose Moon'.
7)July 18 (2:59am CDT/3:59am EDT/8:59am UT) This is the approximate time when the first antlers begin to appear on male deers in the east. Also know as the 'Full Thunder Moon' because of the frequency of thunderstorms this time of year. Called the 'Full hay Moon' by some Europeans.
8)August 16 (4:16pm CDT/5:16pm EDT/10:16pm UT) Called the 'Full Sturgeon Moon' by tribes living near major bodies of water because this i9s the time of year when fishing for this species is the best. Also known as the 'Full red Moon' because evening haze often gives a reddish tone to the rising Moon this time of year. Other names include the 'Green Corn Moon' and the 'Grain Moon'. This Moon will have a partial lunar eclipse this year, visible from Europe, Africa and western Asia. Last year there was a second total lunar eclipse on August 28th, visible in the western part of North America.
9)Sept. 15 (4:13am CDT/5:13am EDT/10:13am UT). This will be this year's 'Harvest Moon'. this title is given to the full Moon that occurs closest to the Autumnal Equinox. Usually the Moon rises about 50 minutes later each night, but near the equinoxes it only rises 25 to 30 minutes later in the USA and 10 to 20 minutes in Canada. This means that there is extra moonlight to work on the harvest on several days near to this full Moon.
10)Oct. 14 (3:02 pm CDT/4:02pm EDT/9:02pm UT). This is known as the 'Full Hunters' Moon'. As the leaves are shed and grass begins to wilt prey animals can be seen and tracked more easily.In addition many animals have fattened up for the winter. Thus the best time of the year to hunt.
11)Nov. 13 (12:17am CST/1:17am EST/6:17am UT) The 'Full Beaver Moon' was traditionally a good time to trap beaver before water bodies froze for the winter. Beavers at this time of year are particularly active in making final preparations for winter. This full Moon has also been called the "Frosty Moon'.
12)Dec. 12 (10:37am CST/11:37 EST/4:37 UT). Some tribes called this the 'Full Cold Moon' and others called it the 'Full Long Nights Moon'. the reasons for both names are obvious. Europeans often referred to it as the 'Moon Before Yule'. On this day at 10:00pm UT the Moon will be at perigee (its closest approach to the Earth), and thus this will appear as the apparently largest full Moon of the year.
Sorry folks, no Blue Moon this year.

ANARCHIST VIDEO:

WHAT'S HAPPENING AT SATAN MACNUGGIT:

Jonathan Culp, the radical video artist and human behind Satan MacNuggit, according to his newsletter entered 2008 with "vows of unfettered productivity". All the best to him. Seems that his collected DVDs, including Recap, Trigger Cut, Grilled Cheese Sandwich, It can Happen Here and Be a Cog, are now all available from the website noted above. Jonathan is also the coordinator for the winter season workshops held by the Liaison of Independent Filmmakers of Toronto (LIFT), and a complete listing of their upcoming workshop schedule is available at http://LIFT.on.ca . So if you're in the area of TO and are interested in independent video production be sure to check it out. Speaking of workshops Jonathan will also be giving a presentation on "video activism" at the Blackwood Gallery (U. of T. at Mississauga) on friday, February 8. See the galleries outreach coordinator, Susanne Carte-Blanchenot at 905-828-3789. Lots of stuff if you live in the TO area.

LABOUR SOLIDARITY:

BASEBALL'S NEW ERA CAP TURNS DR. KING'S DREAM INTO A FIELD OF NIGHTMARES:

Due south of this land of ice and snow the Americans are winding up their Martin Luther King Holiday. In this year of electioneering it has become an occasion for the airing of platitudes. For some others, however, is is a time of profiteering. New Era Cap, of Mobile Alabama, is the exclusive supplier of baseball caps for the major ball leagues in that country, and their actions towards their workers say that the things that King struggled against in his lifetime are still alive in the USA today.

The labour solidarity site, United Students Against Sweatshops, has taken the occasion of Martin Luther King day to call on support for the workers employed by New Era in their struggle for unionization and dignity. Their statement follows. To join this campaign go to the link for their organization highlighted above.

"This weekend we honour Dr. King's dream for justice and equality in America. We all know there is still a long struggle to achieve it, but Dr. King's dream of a land free from bigotry and discrimination has turned to a nightmare for Mobile workers at New Era Cap, Major League Baseball's exclusive maker of baseball caps.

This past spring, in order to address poverty level wages, racial discrimination and forced overtime, New Era Cap workers in Mobile, Alabama decided to stand up for their rights and fight for justice and equality in their workplace. Workers, the majority of whom are black and female, were being passed over for promotion and were being paid less than white workers. New Era was even disciplining single mothers when they took time off to bring their children to the doctor.

New Era workers courageously stood up for themselves and formed a union to protect their civil rights. In response the company launched a vicious anti-union campaign of systematic bullying and intimidation. New Era management even threatened workers that they could lose their food stamps if the union was voted in. During the course of this campaign New Era Cap terminated more than 20 workers. This past holiday season new Era Cap had laid off an additional 35 workers, causing great hardship to the workers and their families.

Over the past several months civil-rights, student, faith-based and community organizations have come together to support New Era workers and hold New Era accountable for its abuse and discrimination, but New Era refuses to meet workers' simple demands of re-hiring the fired workers, ending all discrimination and allowing all New Era workers to chose union representation without fear of retribution.

It is time for a new day at New Era: We demand justice Today !

POWER AND COMMUNITY:

TEN YEARS AND WE'VE LEARNED NOTHING:

This month is the tenth anniversary of the "Great Ice Storm" of 1998. this was an event that plunged much of eastern Canada, particularly Quebec, and the northeastern section of the USA into the deep-freeze as freezing rain downed power lines across much of that part of the continent. The freezing rain began on January 5th, and before long power transmission lines supplying major urban areas were down across the northeastern part of the continent. Cities across Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes declared states of emergency. in Montreal boil water advisories were issued as one of the city's two filtration plants had shut down due to the power outage. The Montreal subway was closed, and most businesses shut down. The ice storm continued for several days, and by the end of the week over 4 million people were living without power in the depths of a January winter. The Quebec government took three days to request federal assistance. At the same time Hydro Quebec employees worked an average of 16 hours a day to try and restore power. Despite their efforts it was several days before power could be restored to many areas, particularly in the Montreal area. For a collection of media coverage of this storm see http://blog.fagstein.com/2008/01/05/ice-storm-anniversary-coverage .

The great ice storm of 1998 was, of course, only one of many large scale power outages that have become increasingly frequent worldwide in recent years. See the Wikipedia article on Power Outages for coverage of many of them and also to see how they are becoming more frequent. The ice storm was remarkable in that it both came at the worst possible time of year and that it involved other effects that made recovery even more difficult (blocked roads, etc.). In terms of area affected it was hardly the largest such event.

What is the problem here ? The answer is simple. As the provision of electric power becomes increasingly centralized, and as the delivery becomes increasingly dependent upon a complicated network of interacting systems failures inevitably become more and more common. Most of the major outages cited in the Wikipedia article didn't depend upon natural disasters to bring them about. They happened because the more complicated a machine becomes the more ways it has to fail. One doesn't have to invoke the hand of "extreme weather events", though if one believes some such things will become increasingly common with global warming. Much ado has been made in the USA of the vulnerability of their power grid to "terrorism". Many resources have been put into safeguarding (or at least "studying") against this event that has yet to occur while at the same time few resources have been devoted to safeguarding against events that have and do happen and that are becoming more frequent.

The problem ? Yes, terrorism is "sexy", and one can garner funds to study an imaginary threat instead of events that occur with some frequency. But even more importantly the obvious solution to such widespread disruptions is one that is totally unacceptable to those who have power (in the political and economic sense) in both the private and public sectors. Building power generation facilities on a local rather than a continental scale appeals to nobody but those who might be most affected by the loss of power, those without economic means. Power megaprojects are indeed profitable, but only with the support of massive public investment. This sort of subsidy distorts the market and squeezes out other local initiatives that might grow up in the absence of such free money. One can "harden" the power distribution system as much as one likes, and one can try and build in redundancy to cushion the effect of local events. But such "fixes" often increase the chances of the very failures that they are trying to avert, as they increase the complexity of the system.

Locally generated power can be produced in any number of different ways, many of which are being developed today. It is such questions that anarchism should address, and to some extent it is doing so already. Unlike other political philosophies, anarchism places the highest value on local independence, and certainly being able to provide for electric power locally is high on the list of things that a community requires for real independence. Without such a fallback resource a community is inevitably tied to a central power, whether that power be political or economic. Should a natural disaster (as opposed to one that is created solely by the centralized nature of the power grid) occur the effects will remain localized and could be dealt with much easier. As it is the authorities whom we are supposed to trust as having our best interests in mind have pretty much bowed to the inevitability of such large scale disaster, and their "planning" is much more about how to refine their response than to prevent such things. Perhaps prevention should be looked at as more important. But that requires examining the vested interests that live off the way that things are presently irrationally organized.

THE WILD WORLD OF POLITICS:

"LINGERIE MAYOR" REFUSES TO STEP DOWN:

Arlington, Oregon , with all of its 524 inhabitants, is hardly the throbbing centre of the universe. The town is small enough that it has a list of upcoming birthdays on its official website. Yet the mayor of this town, one Carmen Kontur-Gronquist, has brought this little burg into international prominence. Some years before she was elected she posed for a few photographs on the town's fire engine, clad in black underwear. Kontur-Gronquist is also the executive secretary of the local fire department as well as working in a local health clinic. She then posted them on a My Space site that a relative of hers had set up in hopes that it might help her to have a larger social life. Ah well. I don't know if this move worked very well. One can imagine the pictures and contacts she received in reply. Molly's first suggestion would have been a name change. "Carmen" is OK, but "Kontur-Gronquist" just doesn't fly. Sounds like something out of Conan the Barbarian. Carmen is a single mother, and her hyphenated name suggests that she has little discretion in mate choice beyond choosing the ape with the loudest grunt. Carmen has suggested that she intended to use the photos in "a contest about fitness in women". As you can see from the photos she is indeed "fit" in a physical sense. Carmen wears her 42 years very well.

All that is neither here nor there. In typical hothouse "politics" fashion Carmen replaced a clique that had apparently been more than a little loose with the public purse, according to commentators from the area where she lives. It is suspected that the photos were brought to light as an act of retaliation on the part of those who were cut out of this little (tiny,itsy,bitsy) honey-pot. Other commentators on the blogosphere have noted that the photos reveal little more than any bathing suit picture- somewhat less actually. In any case the town of Arlington(which actually!!!!! is incorporated as a "city" with all of its 524 inhabitants-I shit you not) has received such publicity from this little kerfuffle that a cynical observer would suspect that BOTH the Mayor and her supposed "opponents" who think she has disgraced the "city" were in on some sort of con-game to increase tourist dollars for the "western experience" of riding horses, or at least one horse in this one-horse town. It may or may not be true that her local opponents have mounted a campaign to demand that she step down as Mayor before her term expires in 2009. Perhaps they indeed do want to get their hands back into the kitty, no pun intended.

OK, here's the denouement. The town's website has yet to mention this "event" that brought them international fame. To this time their only claim to fame was that they were named after the birthplace of Robert E. Lee. Whoop-de-do-da. The town website is actually the website of their high school baseball team. It is...hold on to your shorts...'Home of the Honkers'. Oh my God ! Only in America ! I wish the town well, all 524 of them in that thriving "city", and if this is a fake then they deserve all the tourist dollars they can get.

Keep smiling. Humour is yet alive in the USA. In any case Molly wants to award Carmen one of her Molly no-prizes. Why ? For being one of the few examples in human history of a politician actually doing a real public service. I wish her well in finding the next source of genetic material for her reproductive purposes. Just avoid anyone with the first name of "Ooog". That Molly, she is so free with her wise advise. Maybe I should get my own TV or radio show. Move over Dr. Phil; there's a new cat on the tube. Gotta make some money off all this wisdom.

ANARCHIST THEORY:

ANARCHY AND GAME THEORY

PART THREE:

For the past few days Molly has been serializing Doug Newdick's essay 'Anarchy and Game Theory'. In the last installment Newdick, drawing on the work of Michael Taylor, laid out why he thinks the Prisoners' Dilemma is not a realistic model of many social interactions. In particular he mentions the "game strategy" of TIT FOR TAT. In this section Newdick goes further into how cooperation can evolve in the situation where the "players" are assumed to be rational and self-interested. Molly wants to alert the reader that these assumptions do not always hold, and also refer the reader back to previous installments for terms that may seem obscure (see the January 2008 Archives if this page fails to hold Part One).

ANARCHY AND GAME THEORY, PART THREE...

6.3 ITERATED N-PERSONS PRISONERS' DILEMMA

A more realistic model of some social interactions, especially public goods interactions, is that of an N-person iterated prisoners' dilemma, that is an iterated prisoners' dilemma with more than two players (an indefinite number for purposes of analysis). The analysis is too complex to reproduce here (10), but the results of the analysis of the 2-person iterated prisoners' dilemma can be applied more or less straightforwardly to the N-person case. If cooperation is to arise at least some of the players must be conditional cooperators (ie utilizing something like B- Molly Note, a TIT FOR TAT "strategy"- and "it has been shown that under certain conditions the cooperation of some or all of the players could emerge in the supergame no matter how many players there are" (Taylor 1987:104).

6.4 CONDITIONS FOR CONDITIONAL COOPERATION

For mutual cooperation to arise a strategy similar to B needs to be used by individuals, and (B,B) needs to be an equilibrium. For the latter to be the case the discount parameter needs to be sufficiently high (Molly Note: an estimate of the value of "future games" which, of course, depends on the very likelihood of such "games") . For the former individuals need to be able to tell whether other individuals are cooperating or defecting (Molly Note- the problem of "information" is crucial in game theory) . The discount parameter is dependent upon the chance of the player having future interactions with the other player, and the frequent with which they have interactions. The greater the probable time between interactions, and the smaller the number of probable interactions, the lower the discount parameter and the lower the chance of getting mutual cooperation. There are a number of ways in which the discount parameter can be increased (Axelrod 1984:129-132): increasing territoriality (reducing population mobility), increasing specialization, concentrating interactions, so that an individual has more interactions with a smaller number of other individuals, decomposing interactions into more smaller interactions.

If more people are to employ a strategy such as B, they need to be able to monitor the behavior of other players. Thus it seems that mutual cooperation will be more likely in smaller societies than in larger ones. if the relations between individuals are direct and many-sided (ie they interact with others without any mediation, and they interact with them in a number of different ways) then monitoring behavior is much easier. this would translate into a less stringent size requirement. Such properties are to be found in societies that have the property of "community" (Taylor 1987: 105, 1982). (Molly Note: the critical reader may note that one of the properties of a society that promote cooperation is "specialization". It should also be noted that "complexity" is another promoting factor, as Newdick argues above. What this says is that the crude reductionism of the perversion of anarchism known as "primitivism" goes against at least this window into "human nature". In actual fact a "primitivist society" would be quite "cooperative" in the sense of being antagonistic to other "foreign societies" ie it would lead to a state of almost perpetual war. released from the need to fight the "other" such societies would be antagonistic within themselves, a state of pervasive paranoia and status struggle. Molly believe the anthropological record bears this out.

THE EVOLUTION OF TIT FOR TAT:

As TIT FOR TAT is the best strategy under certain conditions, we would expect that organisms that evolved in these conditions might well use this strategy as an adaption (with all the usual riders such as the variation might not have arisen, constraints of other structures might prevent this, etc.). This expectation is supported by a number of apparent examples of TIT FOR TAT behavior amongst certain certain organisms that do not live under iterated prisoners' dilemma conditions (Dawkins 1989: 229-233). If such human social interaction does take the form of a prisoners' dilemma (and we have seen that is this is the case then these will be mostly iterated), and if we assume that much of the evolutionary history of humans and their ancestors was spent in small groups (as evidence suggests) then we might expect that humans might have evolved such a behavioral strategy. One must be wary of drawing too strong a conclusion about humans and human behavior from evolutionary arguments. (Molly note.One must also beware of drawing too weak a conclusion because of loyalty to a leftist fashion that served the class interests of would-be managers of society ie a new ruling class) Human behavior is notoriously complex and very plastic, unlike much animal behavior. I do, however, think that this argument gives an additional reason for being optimistic about the possibility for mutual cooperation.

Molly Note: Here is another appropriate stopping place. Following the previous section Newdick will go on to argue further for his views in sections about altruism borrowed from the state of sociobiology at the time he wrote the essay. Today sociobiology is known as "evolutionary psychology" , and it is a vibrant and growing field of research. At the time when Newdick wrote his essay little had been elucidated beyond what he will mention later ie "kin selection" and what he does not mention, "reciprocal altruism" which, of course, is fully consistent with what he wrote about game theory.

Molly can remember when she first started to argue for the need to pay attention to sociobiology way back in the 1970s. It was, of course, met with predictable hostility, even from anarchists who should have known better. At the time the "left" was dominated by the Marxist religion, and paying attention to many facts, not just sociobiology, was considered blasphemy, and in the absence of any prospect of actually carrying out their fantasies of becoming commissars in the real world leftists loved to engage in campaigns of verbal aggression against suspected heretics. Molly was very much inured to this. As an ex-Marxist who had rejected pretty well all of the religion of Marxism she was well used to the fact that most leftists were assholes most of the time. Besides that she had an aggressive streak of her own and a skin of steel. As far as I can determine Newdick never came to the sort of conclusions that Molly did, and he retained far too much sympathy for his leftist professors and the social circles he found in University. Once leaving the "cloister" it was far easier to simply take up new interests. Hence his "disappearance". Nothing that I have read in Newdick's two internet essays says that he ever bothered to look beneath the surface of the rock of leftism. Crawly critters live there. When his efforts were met with the predictable hostility he simply "took a walk". This can often be the best way to handle many matters. Better to handle some sort of cognitive dissonance between the facts (such as Newdick laid out in his essays) and a social group such as "the left" by saying "bugger it all". Not the most creative solution I will grant. The outstanding example of an historical "leftist who hated the left and all its works" has been George Orwell, and Orwell's criticisms of the left of his day are amongst his best writings. But at least this is a theory as to why Newdick simply "disappeared" from lefty writing, as Molly remarked at the beginning of this serialization. Is it the "whole story" ? Obviously not ? In any case Newdick is still alive and prospering today, and Molly wishes him all the best and thanks him for what he contributed when he was younger.

Stay tuned for the conclusion of this serialization in the next few days here at the Molly Soap Opera Channel.

ANTI-ELECTIONEERING:

MILWAUKEE ANARCHISTS BEGIN ANTI-ELECTION CAMPAIGN:

A few hundred kilometers south of civilization here in Winnipeg (cough,cough) anarchists in Milwaukee have begun their own run-up to the 4 year farce of electioneering in the USA. Banners have been placed in anticipation of both the Republican and Democratic national conventions eight months down the road. The picture to the left is one of them. This is the statement of m"some Milwaukee anarchists" as they urge abstention from the upcoming circus:

"Dear Politicos...Do you expect us to be excited about this leash you have so kindly put around our necks ? Every four years we're allowed to have a meaningless impact on the ordering of things by marking up a piece of paper and putting it in a box. The punch line of this is that even if this ritualized illusion worked without scandal or foul play it would be an insult to our integrity to validate our domination by bowing down and telling somebody we aren't worthy of making our own decisions. Do you think that if we heard this repeated in volume and for long enough that we'd forget that we don't have to ask or wait to take control of our lives ?

Forgive us our disgust at this cruel joke you call a choice. We will not forget to laugh, but it will be at your expense. Eight months remain until the Democratic national Convention and the Republican national convention, and you would do well to expect resistance. Everyone can smell the shit you peddle; they've just forgotten how to act, and some are starting to remember. Your end will come.

Why not vote, you ask ?

Some short answers:

1)The relationship and tension of our lives being out of our control is perpetuated through voting and the idea that other people are more qualified to order them in all areas of life. It validates our continued domination, being only qualified to reproduce it, to ask for that which imposes upon us.

2) Voting is inherently reformist. No meaningful change can ever come about through it. It looks as if we might be able to change some things of insignificance, but only on the terms and within the parameters of what makes voting possible. It encourages that we look at details and never the whole of our social relationships. We could never vote to end the relationship we have between us and the infrastructure that counts the votes. We could never vote to end capitalism, the state, institutions of domination, etc. "If voting could change things it would be illegal", a wise woman once said.

3)Voting takes the place of direct participation in the ordering of our lives as it creates meaning out of meaningless choices, preserving the illusion of individual agency where there is none to be found in the difference between options that present almost identical minor alterations to the misery of society and in so doing recuperates the desires of exploited and oppressed people into a form that can be managed and controlled by those responsible for exploitation.

Here it is, spelled out a little more clearly. A gun has been held to our heads since birth, and all the say we are allowed to have on the matter regards the colour of the bullet. Whether it resembles an elephant, a donkey, or anything at all does not matter in the least. And you wonder why we are far from interested in dialog. Dialog would only exist as a means to blur our chains, to confuse and muddle the relationship. We know full well that the slave closest to the master depends on and develops the most affinity to him. Servitude becomes their world and meaning in life.

We are only interested in one thing regarding your parasitic relationship with us. Ending it as soon as possible.

"Some Milwaukee anarchists"

CANADIAN POLITICS:

FIRING HIGHLIGHTS PUBLIC CONCERN ABOUT SAFETY AND CONSERVATIVE BULLY TACTICS:

FROM THE HARPER INDEX:

The continuing soap-opera of Harper and Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) turned a new page recently when the Conservative government fired Linda Keen, former president of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC). The Harper government continues to be in character by scape-goating this person, plotting behind the scenes and generally being about as trustworthy as the old Conservative political boss Brian Mulroney. Here's an article on the subject from the Harper Index, dedicated to keep the microscope on the secretive actions of the feds:

"Ottawa, January 17, 2008: Canada's natural resources minister Gary Lunn and Prime Minister Stephan Harper may have thought they were doing the nuclear industry a favour by firing Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) President Linda Keen, but the move looks likely to backfire in many ways. The firing amounts to blaming the regulator, the CNSC, for a mistake made by the Crown-owned Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL)., the corporation that is being regulated. When it became known that AECL had failed to carry out a required safety upgrade to a 50-year-old reactor, the Commission acted properly by insisting that AECL come into compliance with its licence before the reactor was restarted.

The issue raises serious concerns. The apparent crisis may have been politically manipulated to satisfy the needs of private corporate health care giant MDS Nordion and to boost the asset value of AECL. It is also possible that the government was trying to cover up for having very quietly joined the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership in November. They may have wanted to divert attention from a commitment that could result in Canada becoming a global nuclear waste disposal site.

John Iverson, in the conservative National Post, reports today that Keen was targeted for hurting the nuclear industry at a time it sees hope of expanding. He says she helped impose "tough new international standards on any new reactor built in Canada, in doing so hurting AECL's ability to sell new reactors to the government of Ontario. She also ended 'pre-reviews' of new reactors, a process that warns operators if there are fundamental barriers to them being granted operating licences. Both measures have made AECL less attractive to potential investors at a time when the government is mulling whether to sell off all or part of the nuclear operator."

The CNSC is responsible for ensuring the safety of nuclear reactors. The reactor shutdown affected the scheduling of medical diagnostic procedures- not cancer treatments. So, while there was real inconvenience, it is hard to make a case, as both Lunn and Stephan Harper claimed, that "lives were at risk" by waiting a few additional weeks for safety concerns to be resolved. The issue has many classic hallmarks of another 'manufactured crisis'. What the government created, however, appears to have become a monster.

Firing Keen- undoubtedly at the direction of Harper- makes it harder for the Commission to fulfill its mandate of protecting public health and the environment. It focuses attention on the fatal conflict of interest that was created by having a minister of the Crown responsible for both a licensee (AECL) and its regulator (CNSC). In the past that conflict also produced problematic results, but differently. The CNSC and its predecessor, the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB), were frequently accused by environmental groups of being pro-industry. Staffed as they were by nuclear energy professionals, these charges had a lot of credibility. And staffing was determined by the politicians, who favoured the industry as they do now.

What's new here is that the Commission has stood up to the industry- something that rarely happened in the past- and has been slapped down politically for doing so. Ironically, however, the government's action may have damaged the international reputation of Canada's nuclear industry- which is tied to having a strong independent regulator- and threatened the industry's growth. Ontario's Liberal government plans more reactors, and many politicians, including Lunn, are promoting the use of nuclear power to extract oil from Alberta's tar sands. A public controversy does not help their cause.

Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty expressed concern about Keen's firing. He told reporters at Queen's Park "we need some stability and predictability when it comes to our regulator". He said the Ontario government has cause for concern because the discord between the CNSC and the government could delay the government's plans to build reactors.

The treatment of Keen also sends bad signals to a public becoming increasingly concerned about the safety of food products, water, air quality and the general environment, and adds to the growing list of (supposedly arms-length) quasi-judicial officials dismissed for "affronting" the Conservative government. It is natural for people to wonder how safe they are when regulators can so summarily be sacked for blowing the whistle on safety violations.

The greatest irony is what the move did to Conservative election hopes. By running roughshod over rules of ethics and drawing attention to tactics widely described as dictatorial and bullying, Stephan Harper has done nothing to convince voters he ought to be trusted with a majority government, or perhaps any government at all.

MOLLY COMMENTARY- As I have commented before I think that AECL should be privatized. As an anarchist rather than a leftist ideologue I do indeed meet taxes that I do not love and government bureaucracy that is not sacred. All that being said the machinations of our present government are generally Machiavellian, and what the above commentator says deserves attention. As to nuclear power in general Molly is also not a "greenie ideologue". Some of the concerns of those opposed to this method of power generation are exaggerated. What is not exaggerated is that nuclear power is by its very present technological nature a centralizing method of supplying a necessity, a government sponsored boondoggle that drains economic resources into subsidies to industry, either public or private and starves other alternatives of funds. It also, being as it requires such centralization, leaves the power system of areas supplied in this manner open to unforeseen disasters. Unforeseen only in that their nature cannot be exactly predicted, but very much foreseen in that such centralized and vast networks inevitably will fail. A great argument for more decentralized and local methods of power generation. But much more on this later.

BLOGGING

HERE AT MOLLY'S BLOG:

Things chug along at their usual slow speed here at Molly's Blog. I have begun the editing process ie the addition of Baron Mollydi's House of Zombies and the section for links in French (Liens en Francais), but there's still a lot of work to do on both. In terms of the Liens en Francais those that are listed in the general links section will be moved there, but those that are listed under some other categories such as 'Anarcho-Syndicalist Links", 'Platformist Links', etc. will be duplicated in both sections. Enlaces en Espanol will begin in the near future.

But now, I'd like to alert the reader to our growing texts section. Recent additions revolve around the extended reprint of Doug Newdick's 'Anarchy and Game Theory' on the main blog. I hope to complete this soon. The reprints are not just reposting but also contain info on other links that bear on this subject, so don't forget to look for them. The texts section now contains both this essay and Newdick's other essay 'Power and Consent'. There is also Jam Okra's 'Can Cooperation Ever Occur Without the State ?' and an interesting essay of the "tragedy of the commons" by Dennis Fox entitles 'Psychology, Ideology, Utopia and the Commons'. Molly found this while looking up things revolving around her comments about 'The Rebel Sell'. Molly read the latter book some time ago and planned to review it here, but , like many things it fell into the cracks in time. Maybe I should actually do it. But, speaking of Fox, look for an introduction to this man here at MB. His main site and blog have also been added to our links, and I have to say that he is well worth reading.

More later.

CONSUMERISM:

MCDONALD'S BACKS DOWN FROM ADVERTISING IN CHILDREN'S REPORT CARDS:

As reported some time ago here at Molly's Blog the Campaign for a Commercial Free Childhood initiated an international campaign against the "trial balloon" of McDonald's offering a free Happy Meal to children in Seminole County, Florida who got good grades on their report cards. The international fast food giant has been forced to back down, and this fact has been broadcast in international news media. The initial question may have seemed small. The first images that come to Molly's mind when hearing the phrase "Seminole County" are Pogo and L'il Abner. Yet this is the way that corporations such as McDonald's operate. Try a few test cases first. If they fly then suddenly continents are covered with the same thing. The fact that small local struggles such as these are important can be seen by the fact that their victory gets international coverage. One has to admit that many people, Molly amongst them, derive a certain amount of glee from seeing Ronnie get a boot in the butt. Keep on kicking. See the website highlighted above for more of the actions of the Campaign for a Commercial Free Childhood.

IMMIGRANT SOLIDARITY

CALL-IN TODAY TO SUPPORT ABELKADER BELAOUNI:

In November 2005 Abelkader Belaouni (Kader) was told that his application to stay in Canada was rejected and that he would be deported. Kader's refugee claim was rejected by an Immigration and Refugee Board Commissioner, Laurier Thibault, who refused 99% of the cases before him in a two year period. Later decisions by Immigration Canada failed to take into account the fact that Kader is blind, and, as such, experiences significant discrimination and barriers, in particular when it comes to finding stable employment.

Kader's life has already been uprooted twice. The first time by the brutal civil war in Algeria, which saw hundreds of thousands of civilians die; the second time by the post September 11th Immigration and Naturalization Services (INS) "special registration" program in the United States which applied to all men born in Muslim-majority countries living in the United States. Facing deportation from Canada Kader took the courageous decision to stand up for his dignity as a human being and insist on his right to stay.

His struggle mirrors that of many other refugees and migrants in Canada, and around the world ,who are uprooted, denied the right to seek a life of security and dignity, economically marginalized, forced to live in precarity, imprisoned and threatened with deportation. Kader's decision to stay in Canada has met with an outpouring of support from his friends, as well as individuals and organizations across Quebec, Canada and even internationally. Over 70 organizations and networks, representing over 250 groups in Quebec alone, support status for Kader, including community organizations from his neighbourhood, student organizations, disability rights groups, migrant-justice groups, faith-based organizations and human rights organizations such as Amnesty International.

Two years is two too many !. The Minister of Immigration of Canada, Diane Finlay, has the power to act at any time to regularize Kader's status. Since January 1, 2006 Kader has been in sanctuary at St. Gabriel's Church in Montreal. His supporters are asking that you call the offices of Minister Finlay today (phone # 613-996-4974) to tell her that

A. You understand that Mr. Belaouni's refugee claim was rejected by an adjudicator who had rejected 99% of the claims he heard over a two year period !

B. Mr Belaouni has made a life for himself here, and has the support of over 70 organizations. He faces danger in the country of his origin, Algeria, as a result of his blindness and would face undue hardship if deported !

C. He has been forced to live in Church sanctuary for two years- too long !

More background on this case can be found at http://www.soutienpourkader.net/background.html

MONTREAL

MONTREAL'S 9TH ANNUAL ANARCHIST BOOKFAIR:

The largest anarchist event in North America, the Montreal Anarchist Bookfair, is coming up soon. The event will take place on Saturday, May 17th, 2008 from 10am to 6pm, and it will be followed by a day of workshops on Sunday the 18th. Location...The CEDA, 2515 rue Delisle (near the Lionel-Groulx Metro). The deadlines for this year's proposals are as follows:

a)Anarchist Theatre Festival (Feb 1)

b)Workshops (March 3)

c)Tabling (April 1)

d)Art Exhibits and Films (April 1)

e)Festival of Anarchy Events (April 1)

More information on these events follows. For general contact info please see http://www.anarchistbookfair.ca/ , email info@anarchistbookfair.ca , phone 514-435-2385, or write Montreal Anarchist Bookfair c/o QPIRG Concordia, 1455 de Maisonneuve Ouest, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada. Contact the organizers to receive regular updates by email.

ANARCHIST THEATRE FESTIVAL

Montreal's third annual Anarchist Theatre Festival is seeking submissions of anarchist theatre pieces to be staged May 12th and May 14th. Already confirmed are the Bread and Puppet theatre from Vermont, famous for their giant puppets, as well as Monique Surel, author of Au Temps de l'anarchie, un theatre du combat, a three volume reference on anarchist theatre. Also French actor Nicole Mourer will present a one-man show (a seul sur scene) about the French anarchist poet Armand Robin.

We are looking for other theatre pieces about anarchist ideas and history or any subject related to anarchism including anti-state, against capitalism, fascism, homophobia, sexism, etc.. We will consider plays or monologues that are original work, ones that have already been performed or that have been written by anarchists (historical or contemporary). the pieces can be either full productions or staged readings in french or English.

All work performed is without remuneration. The Festival will provide publicity, an appropriate indoor venue, plus a guaranteed interested audience. All proceeds from ticket sales are used to cover event expenses and for staging future Festivals. If interested please send either an outline of your proposal or sample pages from your work and explain why your proposal would fit in the Festival.

Deadline: No later than February 1, 2008

Submit your proposals to:

anarchistefestival@yahoo.ca

or mail to:

@ Theatre Festival

c/o S. Lepage

6797 rue de Normanville

Montreal, Quebec

H2S 2C2

WORKSHOPS

Proposals for the day of workshops (Sunday) should address an anarchist-themed topic in some depth and should be intended for people who are already familiar with anarchism or might identify as anarchists. the collective will accept between 10 to 15 workshops.

Workshop proposals for the Bookfair day (Saturday) should be introductory workshops to anarchism or an aspect of anarchism and should be aimed at people who are curious about, or new to, anarchist ideas. These workshops should be accessible to non-anarchists. the collective will accept up to 6 introductory workshops. More detailed information about workshop proposals, including guidelines and previous workshops is linked at http://www.anarchistbookfair.ca/en/node/9 . The deadline for workshop proposals is March 3, 2008.

TABLING

The heart of the Bookfair is the main auditorium on may 17, 2008 (10am-6pm) which will include booksellers, distributors, independent presses and political groups from all over Montreal, Quebec, North America and abroad. Please make sure to read our principles at http://www.anarchistbookfair.ca/en/node/4 . Contact us at info@anarchistbookfair.ca to request table space. if you haven't tabled at the Bookfair before include a description of your group and the material you intend to distribute at the Bookfair. The deadline to request a table is April 1, 2008.

ART EXHIBITS AND FILMS

The Montreal Anarchist Bookfair will once again be displaying artwork relating to anarchism and anti-authoritarian, autonomous or anarchist-supported struggles. Please consider proposing an exhibit of photos, posters, original art, repros- anything within the parameters of the Bookfair that can be mounted on a wall or placed in a corner.

The Montreal Anarchist Bookfair will also have a film room running all day, showing films related to anarchism or anarchist-supported struggles that fall within the principles of the Anarchist Bookfair. The deadline for art exhibits and film proposals is April 1, 2008.

FESTIVAL OF ANARCHY EVENTS

In addition to the Bookfair and Day of Workshops the entire month of May is part of a Festival of Anarchy, with diverse anarchist-themed events occurring at different venues in Montreal. The Bookfair Collective complies a Festival of Anarchy calendar, but we count on you to organize the actual Festival of Anarchy events. Get in touch to reserve a date for your event in May (calender dates are "first come, first served). The deadline to submit Festival of Anarchy events to be included in our public calender is April 1, 2008.

VOLUNTEERS, SUPPORTERS, POSTERING AND PUBLICITY

If you would like to receive Bookfair publicity- flyers or posters- by regular mail or electronic mail to distribute in your community get in touch. also please specify whether you want materials in English, French or both. If you are from the Montreal area and would like to help with local postering and flyering efforts please pass on your email and/or phone number and specify what areas you can poster. If you would like to support the Bookstore collective in general with organizing tasks between now and the Bookfair get in touch.

POLAND:

ZSP: SOLIDARITY WITH REPRESSED WORKERS IN AUCHAN SUPERMARKET:

Seems that Molly's Blog has been doing too much heavy duty theoretical slogging lately. Anyways, here's a break from tiny, itty, bitty equations. The following article is reprinted from the Polish anarchist news service Centrum Informaji Anarchistcznej , and it describes a recent solidarity action that one of the Polish anarcho-syndicalist groups, the Union of Syndicalists- Poland (ZSP) held in support of a worker fired at the Auchen Supermarket in Wroclaw. The "clincher" is that the worker in question belonged to the rival anarcho-syndicalist group in Poland, the Workers' Initiative. For the uninitiated (ie most sentient life forms in the universe) this division of the Polish syndicalists mirrors the worldwide division of anarcho-syndicalists into the ILS and AIT camps. The ZSP is the newer group, formed last March/April, and Molly has just added them to her links list (with the English section of their website rather than the Polish one). what Molly finds so inspiring about this action is that, unlike the situation in other countries where AIT and non-AIT anarchosyndicalists are usually sniping at each other- at best- here is an example where people have put aside their organizational loyalties for a more important cause. Molly may also be wrong in another impression she has drawn from reading about these two groups, that in Poland, unlike in most other countries, the AIT group is the more active and dynamic of the pair. Am I wrong ? Polish readers please comment. Anyways...

"On Friday (Jan 11- Molly) the Wroclaw section of the Union of Syndicalists (ZSP) held a solidarity picket for a fired activist of Workers' initiative in front of an Auchan supermarket. The activist was fired from Auchan in Zielona Gora shortly after there was an action demanding better wages and work conditions there.

ZSP members and supporters gave out a few hundred leaflets and had a banner which read 'Enough Repression for Workers' Activism'. After some 40 minutes a security guard tried to verbally intimidate the protesters and asked them to follow him inside the building. The protesters ignored him. About 15 minutes later, all the leaflets were already gone and the activists were ready to go home when the guard came back with eight of his colleagues and the director of security. They tried to threaten the activists which made them resolved to stay.

The activists turned the main entrance of the supermarket into an arena for discussion of exploitation in the market. They also discussed the meaning of freedom of speech and assembly and public spaces. The head of security for some strange reason tried to convince the activists to take their protest to the Volvoidship Office, where she claimed those types of protests belong and, when that failed, claimed that they had the "wrong Auchan" and that supermarket was owned by "a different Auchan". The security guards' boss claimed that "repression of workers was something that existed under Stalinism:\" and that "these days if somebody is repressed, it's his own fault and it means that he's a loser". The ZSp activists tried to ask the security guards how much they earn and how much their bosses earn. The head of security intervened and tried to claim that she earns less than supermarket cashiers. She also said she was a member of the Solidarity Union and claimed that "workers don't need crusaders like you". When she ran out of arguments she decided to offer the ZSP activists immediate employment at Auchan...as security guards !!!

The security people claimed they really need workers as there are too many vacancies. ZSP activists pointed out that this must be a testament to the working conditions in the firm if nobody wants to work there. The activists responded that it is more likely that one day the security guards will join them than that they will join the security guards."

Whooo...Molly's best guess is that the protesters interrupted some serious drinking session here, and that the boss turned into a friendly drunk. It's hard to explain such a bizarre offer any other way. Or maybe the protesters looked like they could indeed handle themselves, and the director tried to take any opportunity that might come her way. Anyways, very strange. Still, the Polish anarcho-syndicalists get full marks for solidarity and initiative.

ANARCHIST THEORY:

ANARCHISM AND GAME THEORY:

PART TWO:

NEWDICK'S OBJECTIONS:


In Part One of Doug Newdick's essay presented the day before yesterday here at Molly's Blog the author outlined the basic format of what he calls the "anti-anarchist argument" of the prisoners' dilemma, as set out by Michael Taylor. The next part of this essay is devoted to Newdick's objections to this argument. It should be noted in passing that a rather simplistic form of the "Prisoner's Dilemma" is used by authors Joseph Health and Andrew Potter in their book 'The Rebel Sell'. The book is somewhat reminiscent of older generations of political recanters as they went from being communists to being neo-conservatives. The main point of the book is a criticism of fashionable counter-culture leftism, a stance that the authors apparently held in their youth (or before their present academic and journalistic careers anyways) and a stance that the authors take to be some sort of "anarchism". To say that whatever their earlier views were that they hardly resembled historical anarchism would be understating the case. The main point of their book is that so-called "culture-jamming" is both fruitless and ultimately hypocritical. That is largely true. The authors, however, don't go as far to the opposite extreme, from barbarism to barbarism, as ex-communist neo-cons do. They park themselves as basically right wing social democrats, a political viewpoint whose goals are at least as self-serving to people like them as "trendy leftism" is to others. Better than signing up with the Ahatollah Bush for Jihad I guess.




Whatever passed for "anarchism" in the rarified social circles that they travelled in when younger was, however, simply a crude "feeling", as is made plain by their discussions of it where they expose what only be termed "cosmic ingnorance" of what the word actually means. So, rather than going from barbarism to barbarism they have gone from crude to crude. Their presentation of the Prisoner's Dilemma, often under the alias of 'The Tragedy of the Commons", is crude in the extreme. It is as if everything that their professors threw at them in the economics classes where they "grew out" of their youthful naivity was taken from the state of game theory in the 1950s, without any regard to all the research that has been done since. Regular readers of Molly's Blog will know that I have a low estimate of the qualifications of many leftist academics. Reading Heath and Potter I came away with the "comforting "(???) feeling that the other side of the coin in academia is often just as lazy, thick and time-serving.




Heath and Potter's book has been reviewed in Issue Number One of the new Ontario platformist publication Linchpin (see earlier here at Molly's Blog) and also has been the subject of discussion of one of the forums over at LibCom. As might be expected such reviewers made much of the authors' criticism of subcultural politics and its futility, but they devoted little space to how distorted both the views of anarchism and the presentation of game theory were in the book.


All this is well and good, and it shows the other side of the coin, how game theory has become very much an in-topic outside of the leftist ghetto, even if some of its uses have all the airworthiness of lead bricks. If the reader is interested in this subject here's a further reference, 'Can Cooperation Ever Occur Without the State ?'. Also, the long time zinester and sceptical anarchist John Johson has recently written on anarchism and game theory in his zine "Imagine:Anarchism for the Real World', issue # 7. Sorry guys, no internet reference here, but you can get a copy for (I presume a small donation) at Imagine, Box 8145, Reno, NV 89507, USA. Now what a place to write about game theory from ! But now, on to the Newdick article...
5. PROVISION OF PUBLIC GOODS ISN'T ALWAYS A PRISONERS' DILEMMA.
"For a game to be a prisoners' dilemma it must fulfill certain conditions: "each player must (a) prefer non-cooperation if the other player does not cooperate, (b) prefer non-cooperation if the other player does cooperate. in other words: (a') neither individual finds it profitable to provide any of the public good by himself; and (b') the value to the player of the amount of the public good provided by the other player alone (ie. the value of being afree rider) exceeeds the value to him of the total amount of the public good provided by joint cooperation less his costs of cooperation" Toylor, 1987: 35).

5.1 CHICKEN GAMES.
For many public good situations either (a'), (b') or both fail to obtain. If condition (a') fails we can get what Taylor calls a Chicken Game, ie. if we get a situation where it pays a player to provide the public good even if the other player defects. But both players would prefer to let the other player provide the good, and we get this payoff matrix:
................................C.......D
C............................3,3......2,4
D............................4,2......1,1


Taylor (1987: 36) gives an example of two neighbouring farms maintaining an irrigation system where the result of mutual defection is so disasterous mthat either indididual would prefer to maintain the system herself. thus this game will model certain kinds of reciprocal arrangements that are not appropriately modelled by a prisoners' dilemma.


5.2 ASSURANCE GAMES.
if condition (b') fails to obtain we get what Taylor calls (1987:38) an Assurance Game, that is a situation where neither player can provide a sufficient amount of the good if they contribute alone. Thus for each player if the other defects then she should also defect, but if the other cooperates then she should prefer to cooperate as well. The payoff matrix looks like this:
........................C.......D
C....................4,4.....1,2
D....................2,1.....3,3
5.3 COOPERATION IN A CHICKEN OR ASSURANCE GAME.
There should be no problem with mutual cooperation in an Assurance Game (Taylor 1987: 39) because the preferred outcome for both players is that of mutual cooperation. With the one-off Chicken Game mutual cooperation is not assured. Mutual cooperation, however, is more likely than in an one-off Prisoners' Dilemma (5).
6. COOPERATION IS RATIONAL IN AN ITERATED PRISONERS' DILEMMA.
6.1 WHY ITERATION ?
Unequivocally there is no chance for mutual cooperation in a one-off Prisoners' Dilemma, but as has been pointed out, the one-off game is not a very realistic model of social interactions, especially public goods interactions (Taylor 1987: 60). Most social interactions involve repeated interactions, sometimes as a group (an N-person game) or between specific individuals (which might be modelled as a game between two players). The question then becomes: Is mutual cooperation more likely with iterated games ? (Specifically the iterated Prisoners' Dilemma). As one would expect, the fact that the games are repeated (with the same players) opens up the possibility of conditional cooperation, ie cooperation dependent upon the past performance of the other player.
6.2 ITERATED PRISONERS' DILEMMA.
There are two important assumptions to be made about iterated games. firstly, it is assumed (very plausibly) that the value of future games to a player is less than the value of the current game. The amount by which the value of future games are discounted is called thye discount value, the higher the discount value the less future games are worth (Taylor 1987:61). Secondly, it is assumed that the number of games to be played i8s idefinite. If the number of games is known to the players then the rational strategy will be to defect on the last game beacuse they cannot be punished for this by the other. Once this is assumed by both players the second to last game becomes in effect the last game and so on (Taylor 1987: 62).


Axelrod (1984) used an ingenious method to test what would be the best strategy for an iterated Prisoners' Dilemma. He held two round-robin computer tournaments where each different strategy (computer program) competed against each of its rivals a number of times. Suprisingly the simplest program, one called TIT FOR TAT, won both tournaments as well as all but one of a number of hypothetical tournaments. Axelrod's results confirmed what Taylor had proven in 1976 (6), TIT FOR TAT is the strategy of choosing C for the first game and thereafter choosing whatever the other player chose the last game (hereafter TIT FOR TAT will be designated stategy B, following taylor (1987).


An equiilibrium in an iterated game is defined as "a strategy vector such that no player can obtain a larger payoff using a different strategy while other players' strategy remains the same. An equillibrium then is such that, if each player expects it to be the outcome, he has no incentative to use a different strategy" (Taylor 1987: 63). Put informally, an equilibrium is a pair of strategies such that any move by a player awayfrom that strategy will not improve the player's payoff. Then mutual cooperation will arise if B is an equilibrium because no strategy will do better than B when played against B (7).


The payoff for a strategy in an indefinite iterated Prisoners' Dilemma is equal to the sum of an infinite series:
X/(1-w)
X= payoff
w= discount parameter (1-discount value)
UD playing with UD gets a payoff of two per game for mutual defection.If we set w=0.9, then UD's payoff is:
2/(1-0.9) = 20
(MOLLY NOTE: I retain the terminology "UD" as it appeared in the original essay, but I alert the reader that this probably should have been "AD" for "always defect" as it is usually referred to in game theory.)
B Playing with B gets a payoff of three per game for mutual cooperation. Thus with w = 0.9 B gets:
3/(1-0.9) = 30
(B,B) is an equilibrium when the payoff for B from (B,B) is higher than the payoff for UD from (UD,B):
B's payoff against B is
3/(1-w)
UD's payoff against B is
4 + 2w/(1-w)
Therefore UD cannot do better than B when:
(3/(1-w)))> (4 + 2w/(1-w))
= w > (4 -3)/(4 -2)
=w > 0.5
(Axelrod 1984: 208) (8) (9)


Can any other strategy fare better against B than B itself ? Informally we can see that this is not possible (assuming future interactions are not too heavily discounted). For any strategy to do better than B it must as some point defect. But is the strategy defects then B will punish this defection with a defection of its own which must result in the new strategy doing worse than it would have had it cooperated. Thus no strategy can do better playing with B than B itself. Now, if B is an equilibrium then the payoff matrix for the iterated game is:
........................B...........UD
B.....................4,4.........1,3
UD..................3,1.........2,2
Which is an assurance game. Thus if B is an equilibrium then we should expect mutual cooperation (Taylor 1987: 67). If, however, b isn't an equilibrium (ie the discount value is too high) then the payoffs resemble a Prisoners' Dilemma and thus mutual defection will be the result (Taylor 1987, 67).
This is a good place to stop until another day. The actual situation in game theory- and real life- is much more complex than what has been described above. In particular the game described above tends to drive towards iterated defection under a simple TIT FOR TAT strategy. Other refinements such as "forgiving tit for tat" are optimum in some situations, and the role of "spite" has been much further investigated in recent years. In the next section Newdick will describe "N-Persons" games. In such situations not just "spite" but also what has been called "altruistic punishment" comes into play. All this is to alert the reader that, while what will come in the next section is valuable, the present state of the theory is far more advanced than what will be presented here.